Published May 22, 2021
4 mins read
892 words
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How Long Would It Take To Run A Bitcoin Bull? Supporters Use Myriad Charts And Models To Predict Prices For The Future

Published May 22, 2021
4 mins read
892 words

As bitcoin prices float over the $55k region, many people wonder when the bulls fly. Proponents of Bitcoin are persuaded that bull markets have three waves and another wave will soon begin. However, no one really knows what will happen next in bitcoin and crypto markets, although several methods, such as tarot cards, can be used.

Down the Days - Bitcoin Bull Runs estimate

Bitcoin enthusiasts are also very bullish about the price and many agree that the bull run hasn't ended. Traders and those really curious about short-term market fluctuations use many methods to forecast the future prices of BTC. Tools and charts used include the model S2F, logarithmic growth curves, multiplier of the golden ratio, HODL waves, profitable times, and many more.

HODL wave map on 10 May 2021

The above picture is a HODL wave map on 10 May 2021 from Unchained Capital and Glass node. "The colored bands represent the relative fraction of bitcoin that was last transacted during the time-frame shown in the legend," the website details of Unchained Capital. "The lower, warmer colors (reds, oranges) reflect the Bitcoin transaction, which has not been transacted for a long time. The top color is cooler (greens, oranges). During this time span, the amount of money supplied to Bitcoin increased from 50 BTC to ~18.5M BTC, and the BTC charts were normalized at each time (left y-axis). The black line indicates the price for USD/BTC (logarithmic, y-axis right)."

For example, the famous Twitter account Bitcoin Archive has tweeted over-realized cap HODL waves and shared an image of its 184,000 followers from Glassnode's platform.

"'Hot money' cooled down and a beautifully shaped first HODL wave can be seen (realized cap). Usually, the Bitcoin bull markets have 3 waves, so expect another to begin soon," said Bitcoin Archive. After the tweet, the Cryptovizart account answered the tweet and said that the pattern for the three-wave wasn't like two cycles. Cryptovizart claims the first wave lasted for longer by systemic FOMO.

Logarithmic growth map

Logarithmic growth map on the 10th of May, 2021 from Lookintobitcoin.com.

Tends also show that Google's famous question is "How long does a Bitcoin Bull last?" and that this topic is covered in many editorials. Rekt Capital released an extensive editorial on 12 April 2021 about the coming of the top. Rekt Capital says it takes about 518 days to run a typical Bitcoin bull.

"This took about the same period for bitcoin before it came down until halving #2 (546 days) as it did until bitcoin came down during its second #1 trading cycle (518 days)," the editorial states.

It is not a perfectly accurate tool or model, but market participants can use it

Colin Talks Crypto has been the influential Youtuber and digital currency proponent for a while now. Colin discusses how to sell and talks about the launch of his "Bitcoin Bull Rune Index (CBBI) Crypto" in a Youtube video published on April 17.

"To help us better understand where we're in the Bitcoin bull run (or bear market) period, the CBBI is an average of 11 different indicators," the website description says. Currently, on 10 May 2021, Colin's CBBI has an average of 71.

Bitcoin Bull Run Index

CBBI rating on 10 May 2021: Colin Talks Bitcoin Bull Run Index.

"The Colin Talks Crypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index (CBBI) is a measure that is focused on an 8-bitcoin portfolio metrics to give us further insight into where we are in a cycle of Bitcoin bulls," said the website. "The ranking from the CBBI is a 'top trust score.' When it comes to 100, it means that we will come closer to the highest price.

Stock-to-flow (S2F) 

On 10 May 2021, the Stock-to-flow (S2F) version of Lookintobitcoin.com will be available.

A recent thread published on Twitter by Coincharts addressed this week's bull run during a tweetstorm.

"Is this bull run where we are? 143 days have passed since the all-time high of 2017 broke by bitcoin. But how far we're going to take in this bull? Of course, it is really hard to say, but you can look at certain stuff," said Coincharts. Coincharts uses software such as the 'MA 200 Heatmap' In the last 200 weeks, the predictor has been a Moving Average, "Google Trends" and "HODL waves."

Google Trends (GT). 

May 10, 2021. Google Trends (GT). The word bitcoin scored 50 search queries for GT between the time from 2 May to 8 May. The highest result of a pattern is 100.

Each has its own tool and technical analysis, and others use Bitcoin derivatives markets such as futures and price deviations. Some assume that the BTC upgrade to Taproot will raise the price while others depend on news such as institutional adoption to keep the market bursting.

When it comes to the future price of bitcoin, there are no exact science or rhyme and reasons. There will never be a medium to fully forecast economies, but we should still ensure that market participants strive to predict the future with all they can to achieve.

What do you think of all models and charts used by people to calculate start and finish periods of Bitcoin bulls? In the following comment section, let us know what you think about that subject

# Bitcoin Bull Run Last?
#Proponents Use a Myriad of Cha
#Predict Future Prices
#Bitcoin Bull
#Counting Down the Days
#Guesstimating Bitcoin Bull Run
#Crypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index
#CBBI
#HODL waves chart
#HODL
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