Gujarat has almost decided but

The narrative of the elections is unique. There's a real tussle for second place. Before AAP entered the fray, this election was going to follow the familiar pattern of the past 25 years, that is, the BJP handily defeating the Congress and getting eight to ten percent more vote share than it . But today the new political debate in Gujarat has focused on how much of a dent AAP can make in the BJP-Congress equation.

There are relatively poorer areas - if you travel to small villages, you will see the wave of saffron there, sometimes the Congress flag can also be seen, but at the same time you will also find the broom there. But Mission Gujarat is his most audacious attempt so far. In the 2014 general elections, he directly fought with Narendra Modi. He had to face a crushing defeat in Varanasi. Eight years later, the picture has changed and AAP, buoyed by the victory in Punjab, is once again in the fray. He has hope from the voters who want change in Gujarat.

But Gujarat is not Punjab, where power kept alternating between the Congress and the Akalis. This is one state where the BJP has not tasted defeat in the last 25 years – not even in the municipal elections. This is the second biggest example of complete political supremacy in a state after the 34-year-long rule of the Left in Bengal. Gujarat is not just a basic laboratory of BJP's Hindutva ideology, it is a state where politics, religion and civil society have come together to create a mini Hindu nation and Prime Minister Modi is projected as its true son.

Despite this, there is also a space for the opposition in Gujarat. Because of this, the Congress has been consistently getting a vote share of 40 percent here. The way the Congress has vote hours in North India or Maharashtra, it has not happened in Gujarat. In 1985, the Congress came to power in Gujarat winning a record 149 out of 182 seats with a vote share of 55 per cent. But only five years later in 1990 he won 30 percent of the votes.

In Gujarat, AAP has shown the Congress that the BJP can be taken on in its own turf. The BJP, on the other hand, is more hesitant to face an opponent like Arvind Kejriwal.

With this, it was reduced to only 33 seats. This is another of the suicidal political blunders of the Congress party, Saurashtra and South Gujarat - which are the hallmark of this state.

The only difference is that since then till now no party in Gujarat has challenged the status of the Congress as the number one opposition party. It is in this context that attention should be paid to the power play of AAP in Gujarat. There, AAP is not only wooing the neo-middle class vote bank of BJP, but also making inroads among the traditional vote banks of Congress like Surat Muslims and Dang tribals. AAP's strategy is risky. She is putting forth a relatively mild version of BJP's saffron politics by appealing to the Hindu sentiment of Gujaratis. And demanding to print pictures of Lakshmi and Ganesha on the currencies. It has also deliberately kept a distance from the Bilkis Bano case lest it reopens the wounds of the 2002 riots. On the other hand, it wants to take advantage of the disenchantment especially of the young voters and is making promises ranging from unemployment allowance to free electricity. Its aim is to get the votes of those people who do not find themselves beneficiaries of the Gujarat model.

Despite this, he has a tough challenge ahead of him. In 2017, the deposits of all its 29 candidates were forfeited. On the other hand, no matter how weak the Congress becomes, it has a strong brand-image which is not going to die overnight. In fact, in 2017, the Congress had gained an edge over the BJP in rural areas, but had to face defeat due to the BJP's strong hold on urban and town areas. Even at present, AAP's presence is visible in Saurashtra and South Gujarat, but its influence in Central and North Gujarat is relatively limited.