Can the Ukraine-Russia War End in 2025 Through Diplomacy, as Zelensky Hopes?

The Ukraine-Russia war, ongoing since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, has evolved into a devastating conflict with no immediate end in sight. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has consistently expressed hope for a diplomatic resolution, despite maintaining a firm stance on Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. The question remains whether diplomacy can realistically bring the war to an end by 2025. To explore this, we must examine the challenges, opportunities, and conditions required for successful diplomacy.

Zelensky's Stance on Diplomacy

President Zelensky has advocated for peace on Ukraine’s terms, emphasizing the importance of restoring its internationally recognized borders and ensuring justice for Russian war crimes. While he has shown openness to international mediation, Zelensky remains adamant that any peace agreement must not compromise Ukraine’s sovereignty. His conditions include:

1. Complete withdrawal of Russian forces from occupied territories, including Crimea.
2. Security guarantees to prevent future aggression.
3. Accountability for war crimes committed by Russian forces.

These demands reflect the aspirations of the Ukrainian people but are unlikely to align with Russia’s current position, complicating diplomatic efforts.

Challenges to Diplomacy

Several significant obstacles stand in the way of a diplomatic resolution:

1. Russia's Inflexibility

The Kremlin, under Vladimir Putin, views Ukraine as within Russia’s sphere of influence and has consistently rejected any peace proposal that includes full territorial restitution. Russia’s annexation of four Ukrainian regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson) and its 2014 annexation of Crimea underscore its unwillingness to negotiate on territory.

2. Domestic Pressures in Ukraine

For Zelensky, any concession on sovereignty could be politically catastrophic. The Ukrainian public, hardened by years of war and suffering, overwhelmingly opposes territorial compromises with Russia.

3. Global Geopolitics

While Western nations back Ukraine, key players like China and Turkey, which have ties to Russia, advocate for negotiated settlements but avoid condemning Russian aggression. The divergence of global interests complicates the formation of a unified diplomatic effort.

4. Prolonged Stalemate

On the battlefield, neither side has achieved a decisive advantage. As long as both believe victory is achievable, the incentive for diplomacy diminishes.

Opportunities for Diplomacy

Despite the challenges, there are factors that could foster a diplomatic breakthrough by 2025:

1. International Mediation

Countries such as Turkey, China, or India could play pivotal roles as neutral mediators. Turkey, in particular, has facilitated key agreements, including the Black Sea grain deal, demonstrating its ability to broker temporary solutions.

2. War Fatigue

Both Ukraine and Russia are experiencing significant economic and human costs. Prolonged war could increase domestic pressure in both countries to seek an end to hostilities, especially if economic sanctions and global isolation further weaken Russia.

3. Global Economic Pressures

The war has caused disruptions in energy markets and global food supplies, creating pressure on major powers to push for peace. Diplomatic initiatives led by the UN, EU, and key economic stakeholders could gain momentum as the costs of the conflict ripple worldwide.

4. Ukraine's Military Leverage

If Ukraine makes significant territorial gains or demonstrates the ability to strike deep into Russian-held areas, it could strengthen its negotiating position and force Russia to consider compromises.

What Would a Diplomatic Solution Look Like?

For diplomacy to succeed, both sides would need to make significant compromises. A potential framework could include:

1. Ceasefire Agreement: An immediate cessation of hostilities to prevent further loss of life.
2. Territorial Status Quo: A temporary freezing of current territorial positions while negotiations take place, possibly leading to international supervision of disputed areas.
3. Security Guarantees: NATO or other international bodies could offer Ukraine security guarantees to deter future aggression.
4. Gradual Reconciliation: Russia and Ukraine could establish economic or political pathways to rebuild trust over time, though this would likely take years, if not decades.

Can Diplomacy Work by 2025?

While Zelensky’s hope for a diplomatic resolution reflects his commitment to peace, achieving this by 2025 is a monumental challenge. Several factors must align:

1. Shifts in Russia’s Leadership or Policy: A change in leadership or strategy within the Kremlin could open the door to negotiations.
2. Sustained International Pressure: A united global effort to incentivize peace and punish continued aggression is essential.
3. Battlefield Developments: Military outcomes in 2024 and 2025 will heavily influence the willingness of both parties to negotiate.

Conclusion

While Zelensky's hope for a diplomatic resolution by 2025 is aspirational, the current realities suggest that such an outcome is uncertain. The deep-seated animosity, uncompromising positions on sovereignty, and geopolitical complexities make diplomacy a long and arduous path. However, with sustained international support and potential shifts in the conflict’s dynamics, diplomacy could pave the way for an eventual end to this devastating war.

For diplomacy to succeed, it will require not only the willingness of Ukraine and Russia but also a concerted effort from the international community to mediate, enforce agreements, and address the underlying causes of the conflict. Whether this can be achieved by 2025 remains to be seen, but the hope for peace must remain alive.